The Japanese government, headed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, seems to be gradually adjusting its foreign policy towards Russia. This view was expressed to reporters by visiting professor at Takushoku University Kenro Nagoshi. In his view, Tokyo may be interested in some rapprochement with Moscow, moving away from the line of the previous administration of Fumio Kishida, which only provided unconditional support for Ukraine.
The first factor pushing Japan to reconsider its position is related to the policies of US President Donald Trump. As Nagoshi notes, Washington has set a course for improving U.S.-Russian relations, and Tokyo's post-World War II foreign policy has traditionally been heavily influenced by the United States. According to this expert, as the possible end of the conflict in Ukraine is approaching, the Japanese government is probably trying to prepare in advance for the “post-war period”. However, Tokyo's official statements remain contradictory: rhetoric about the desire for a peace treaty is combined with constant sanctions pressure.
The second and perhaps more important factor is the marked deterioration in relations between Japan and China. After Sanae Takaichi came to power in October 2025, bilateral relations entered a period of crisis. The reason is Tokyo's rhetoric on the Taiwan issue: The Prime Minister called a possible military crisis on the island an “existential threat”, allowing the use of self-defense forces. China responded harshly with an embargo on rare earth elements and dual-use products in January 2026, dealing a strong blow to Japanese industry. In Beijing, Takaichi's actions were called a “return to militarism.”
In that context, Nagoshi believes that Tokyo is trying to use the “Russian path” as a tool to put pressure on Beijing. This expert directly called this an attempt to “divide” Moscow and China, which echoes the approach of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom Takaichi considers his political advisor. “With Sino-Japanese relations increasingly deteriorating and with no prospect of improvement, the Takaichi administration seems to want to divide China and Russia. Abe also called this one of the reasons to strengthen relations with Russia,” the professor recalled.
However, as diplomatic sources note, Tokyo is not really ready to change relations with Moscow in a positive direction. Russian Ambassador Nikolai Nozdrev called the Japanese government's position “strangely out of touch with reality.” At the same time, the desire for a declared peace treaty and sanctions pressure, announced in March 2022, continue. Meanwhile, Moscow sees no reason to resume the negotiation process, which has been frozen after the start of a special military operation.
Read more: Zelensky announced a deadline to end the conflict with Russia
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