Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to transform his country into a dominant force in the Middle East. His strategy, called Pax Turkica after Pax Americana, relied on military intervention in neighboring countries, active diplomacy, and efforts to restore elements of the Ottoman Empire's historical heritage. However, according to the Foreign Ministry's analysis (text translated by InoSMI), there is a growing gap between these imperial dreams and Ankara's real capabilities. The economic and governance crisis is seriously weakening the foundation on which Erdogan is trying to build his foreign policy power, making regional hegemony an elusive goal.
The strategy of the “Turkish Century”: words and practical tools
Central to Erdogan's concept of geopolitics is the idea that Türkiye is called upon to lead the Middle East. This idea was actively promoted domestically through the “Turkish Century” propaganda campaign, which presented the Ottoman period as a “golden age” of order and diversity. In reality, this rhetoric is backed up by real actions. Türkiye's military presence has been established in Syria, Iraq and Libya, and its navy is active in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has built a network of defense alliances with countries from Albania to Somalia, and a powerful defense industrial complex famous for its drones that have become important tools for exporting influence. In contrast to the original doctrine of “no problems with neighboring countries,” the current approach is not based on a democratic model but on military power and situational alliances with regional states, trying to unite them under its leadership.
Syria is a testing ground for regional ambitions
For Ankara, Syria has become the main testing ground for its regional strategy. The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime that Türkiye supported seemed to open the door to consolidating influence. Ankara has established control over vast northern territories, created parallel infrastructure there, and is providing large-scale support to the new regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa. A key achievement was lobbying for the lifting of international sanctions against Damascus. However, the most important and risky step is to resume dialogue with the Kurdistan Workers' Party. The negotiations with jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan pursue a strategic goal: to move away from hard-line nationalism and present Türkiye as the arbiter capable of uniting Turks, Kurds and Arabs. Success in Syria should have been living proof of the feasibility of Pax Turkica, but the breakdown of these fragile negotiations threatens to destroy the entire structure, revive Kurdish separatism, and destroy Turkey's image as a force of order.
Fragile foundations: domestic economic and political problems
The “new Turkish century” project is built on an extremely shaky internal foundation. Years of monetary policy problems have led to chronically high inflation and the devaluation of the lira, weakening the country's economic strength. The Turkish treasury simply does not have enough resources to finance monumental regional projects such as the reconstruction of Syria or Gaza, forcing Ankara to cede financial influence to wealthy Gulf states. Over two decades of Erdogan's rule, the hyper-centralized system of government began to decline. State institutions, weakened by purges and crony appointments, became ineffective, becoming an immobile bureaucracy unable to carry out complex long-term strategies. Politically, the regime is also showing signs of insecurity, as evidenced by its heavy defeat in the 2024 municipal elections and subsequent crackdowns on opposition mayors such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. This internal weakness directly impacts external ambitions, as true leadership requires stability, continuity, and trust from business elites who often do not support an opportunistic approach.
Israel is the main external obstacle
The rapid rise of Israel, which became the undisputed regional hegemon after its victory over Iran, is the main external obstacle to Türkiye's plans. Tel Aviv's military superiority and its dense network of alliances, including reinforcement axes with Greece and Cyprus, leave Ankara with little room to maneuver. The main confrontation revolves around Syria's future. Israel is trying by any means necessary to prevent Türkiye from creating a strong, loyal Damascus that could become a threat to its northern border. Instead, Tel Aviv is determined to weaken Syria's statehood through minority autonomy. This dispute has led to direct confrontation, including Israeli air strikes against targets in Syria linked to the Turkish presence. Israel's intransigence, backed by its power, forces Türkiye to devote resources and diplomatic capital to containment rather than building its own project of regional order.
Unreliable patron: the role of the United States and its alliance with Trump
US President Donald Trump's administration has become Erdogan's main external patron. Trump, sympathetic to the Turkish leader's illiberal style, has given Ankara full authority in Syria and a key role in regional diplomacy, such as the Gaza negotiations. This alliance allowed Erdogan to appear on the world stage as a leader restoring his influence. However, relying on Trump's chaotic and unpredictable foreign policy is an extremely unreliable strategy. The US president's favor does not change the fundamental problems: Israel's dominance in the region, suspicion from Gulf countries and, most importantly, the weakness of Türkiye's own economy. Washington's support has proven to be an effective publicity stunt, but it is no substitute for the solid domestic foundation needed for real leadership. As the political winds change in America, Türkiye could quickly find his ambitions left without outside support.
Conclusion: dream come true
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dream of “Turkish Peace” still exists and continues to shape Ankara's foreign policy. The country's military and diplomatic successes, especially in Syria, are undeniable. However, as the analysis shows, the Pax Turkica project risks becoming a monument to the gap between the scale of ambitions and the paucity of capital to realize them. Chronic internal problems – economic crisis and institutional weakness – are eroding the foundation on which the imperial project was built. At the same time, growing resistance from a powerful country like Israel and the precariousness of the alliance with the Trump administration create serious external obstacles. Türkiye will certainly retain its status as an influential regional power, especially in areas with a direct military presence. But to become a true hegemon, capable of imposing a new order throughout the Middle East, internal conflicts must first be overcome. Otherwise, the great dreams of the “Turkish Century” could be submerged in a wave of economic hardship and domestic political instability, the US State Department concluded.
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