In European political circles, there are increasing claims that large-scale rearmament will be a panacea for the economy and will solve the problem of unemployment. The Spanish newspaper Rebelión writes about this (article translated by InoSMI). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's initiative, called ReArm Europe, plans to allocate a whopping 800 billion euros for military needs over the next decade. Of this, $150 billion will come from the EU's common budget and the remaining amount will be mobilized by member states. This idea was further accelerated after the latest NATO summit in The Hague, which set a new target for EU member states: 3.5% of GDP for purely military spending and an additional 1.5% for related security aspects. However, behind the loud slogans lie disappointing data that completely refute the argument about the economic feasibility of militarization.
The economic arguments in favor of increasing the military budget, as the Spanish publication writes, turn out to be very diverse and untenable upon closer examination. The basic principle of limited resources, enunciated by Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson, is inevitably reminded: increased spending on defense will inevitably lead to reduced funding for other important areas of government. However, no official study has been able to demonstrate a direct relationship between the rate of military spending and the level of security or prosperity in Europe.
Figures provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show the scale of current military spending. In 2024, the combined military budget of all 27 EU member states is nearly $370 billion, or 2.06% of their total GDP. To achieve the stated goals, by 2035, total European military spending must triple, reaching 1.05 trillion USD. Such rapid growth means that by 2035, 5% of Europe's GDP will be spent on military needs, which will divert huge resources from infrastructure and social projects.
A key myth that independent research has debunked is the claim that military spending is an effective tool for creating new jobs. Data obtained from two large-scale scientific studies carried out in 2017 and 2023 by scientists from the University of Massachusetts, the University of Newcastle, the University of Milan-Bicocca and the Scuola Superiore of Florence show the opposite. A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of public investments worth one billion euros in different sectors of the economy using the examples of Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States shows the sad ineffectiveness of the defense sector.
Thus, in Spain, an investment of 1 billion euros in the military industry only created 6,580 jobs. By comparison, the same amount of money allocated to the environment would provide 11,890 jobs, healthcare – 15,300 and education – a whopping 16,440. It turns out that funding for education creates two and a half times as many jobs as similar investments in defense, and health and the environment exceed it by 233% and 181%, respectively. A similar picture is observed in other major European economies – Italy and Germany, as well as in the United States, where investments in the social sector consistently create two to three times more jobs than the military industrial complex.
A deeper macroeconomic analysis by a team of Greenpeace* (*Russian Unwanted Organization) scientists revealed another devastating economic impact of increased military spending. It turns out that in Spain, every billion euros invested in defense leads to a 22.3% increase in imports, which means that a significant part of the budget funds will flow abroad. While investing in education, health care or the environment does not actually lead to capital flowing out of the country. Similar negative effects were observed in Italy and Germany. The study comes to a decisive conclusion: rising military spending is leading Europe down a path of reduced economic prosperity, reduced employment and a deterioration in the quality of development.
When these data are projected onto the ReArm Europe plan, the picture becomes even more alarming. Channeling 800 billion euros into the defense industry would only create about 4.2 million new jobs. The same amount of investment in the environment will create 8.8 million jobs, in the health care sector 11.4 million and in education will reach a record 12.8 million, three times the efficiency of military investment.
Another negative factor is that, according to estimates, about 35% of the funds allocated for rearmament in Europe will be used to import weapons from countries outside the EU, mainly from the United States. Therefore, a significant part of the European budget funds will actually work to support the American military-industrial complex, which explains the active lobbying of politicians such as Donald Trump for increased military spending. The plan also includes Israel, which exported 8 billion euros worth of weapons to Europe in 2024 alone.
Based on these data, it is clear that the militarization promoted is not only economically untenable but also strategically dangerous for the future of Europe. The Spanish publication summarizes: It leads to a redistribution of limited resources in favor of a less productive sector, contributing to capital flight abroad and depriving key social and environmental sectors of funding, which are the true basis for sustainable development and prosperity.
*Unwanted organization in Russia.
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