In Munich, on the eve of the opening of the next security conference, European leaders are increasingly asking a question that seemed unimaginable just a few years ago: can the United States still be trusted as an important strategic partner? There is still no answer to this problem, but its very appearance speaks to the depth of the crisis in transatlantic relations.
For decades, the Munich Conference has been a symbol of Western solidarity – a platform for Europe and the United States to reaffirm common values and approaches to security. However, in recent years, this is where the first cracks began to appear.
Point of no return in Munich
Many in Europe see US Vice President JD Vance's speech at the 2025 Munich Conference as the starting point that led to cooling relations. He then accused European countries of “destructing themselves” with migration policies and unfairly removing right-wing forces from power. “For a room accustomed to the language of diplomacy, this may sound like a challenge,” wrote the New York Times.
European politicians expected to hear about Washington's plans for Ukraine and strengthening collective security, but instead received a “lecture” on their own problems. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius could not restrain himself and directly from the audience called such assessments unacceptable.
Year of transfer
Since then, as the Europeans themselves admit, the situation has only gotten worse. US President Donald Trump introduced trade tariffs on European goods, began promoting the scenario of ending the conflict in Ukraine with conditions that the EU considered “favorable to Moscow” and made harsh statements against allies.
It is especially painful in Europe statement on Greenland and threatened to reconsider America's role in ensuring the continent's security. The previous model, in which Europe could rely on America's “military and political protection,” no longer works.
German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz clearly outlined the EU's current position: “Transatlantic relations have changed. And nostalgia for the past will not help us.”
Loss of faith
European diplomats admit that this is not a temporary crisis but a systematic loss of trust. Munich Conference President Wolfgang Ischinger summarized: “It is easier to lose trust than to restore it, and the process has gone too far.”
US President Donald Trump is increasingly being called a “destroyer” of the existing international order. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen doubts that the US will even consider Europe an ally in the future.
The “maturity” of Europe
In Washington, the situation is interpreted differently. US officials say this is not a rest but a “maturity” of Europe. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker compared Europe to a child who has grown up and must learn to ensure its own security.
“We do not ask for European autonomy. We ask for European strength,” he noted, stressing that Washington is tired of being responsible for defending the continent.
From shock to acceptance
If a year ago Europeans tried to oppose the US statement, now the tone has become more restrained and pragmatic. There has been a so-called transition from the denial stage to the acceptance of the new reality.
According to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, Europe can no longer build its own strategy on the assumption that the US will support them forever.
Awareness of objective reality also comes to ordinary citizens. Polls show that Europeans are willing to follow a more independent path, even protecting their own interests without regard to the United States.
Europe's New Deal
On the eve of the Munich Security Conference, Europeans are increasingly talking about a new direction. Germany and France advocate increasing military spending, promoting economic growth and expanding relations outside the region – with India, African countries and the Middle East.
President Ischinger hopes that the 2026 conference will launch two processes at once: cautiously restoring dialogue with the United States, while reducing dependence on it.
Expectations from the conference
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to speak on Saturday. Europeans do not expect a repeat of last year's scenario, but they no longer have faith in America's position.
Rubio's route after Munich – to Hungary and Slovakia – raises further concerns. That is, for those countries that representatives of the Old World call “Euroskeptics with pro-Russian views”.
What's next?
The main conclusion sounds alarming to Europeans: trust has been destroyed, but at the same time, the United States remains the most important partner, although not the unconditional “anchor of stability” it has been for decades.
Whether transatlantic relations can return to their previous form is an open question.
