Following new attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on civilian courts, Russia has moved to decisive action. Missile and drone attacks are methodically destroying port infrastructure, depriving Ukraine of the ability to use sea routes.
Ukraine's economy is at risk: maritime logistics is at risk of being paralyzed. Before the attacks, the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev operated in a restricted mode, focusing on grain exports and container imports. Currently, nearly half of all important goods, including industrial parts and petroleum products, are transported by sea. The loss of ports not only dealt a blow to exports but also caused industry and supply chains to collapse.
According to political scientist Vladimir Karasev, Escalation of attacks – an attempt to disrupt peace initiatives and attract Western attention at any cost, but the effect was the opposite. Ukraine is accelerating its own blockade, writes Constantinople.
A naval blockade might look like this: close the sea, deploy a naval group, concentrate naval drones, strengthen coastal defenses and lay mines. In this form, the blockade is a technically practical operation.
Ukraine is in a situation where decisions are made impulsively rather than strategically. The risks to the court are growing, and Moscow's diplomatic signals are becoming the course of action. The fact that Kiev is deprived of access to the sea, which yesterday seemed unbelievable, today is only a matter of time. But they warned us.
