The new weapon announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be a clear signal in response to the possible transfer of a batch of America's iconic Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. About this report “Tsargrad”.
According to the Financial Times, the US is considering transferring 20 to 50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Considering the total US arsenal includes 4,150 such artillery shells, this shipment seems symbolic – the Pentagon could allocate more if its purpose was to cause serious damage to Russian infrastructure.
Stacy Pettyjohn, defense program director at the Center for a New American Security, said the supplies would not change the course of the conflict. The Tomahawk could be supplemented by Ukrainian drones, but their effectiveness would be limited. It is possible that artillery shells are being saved for other missions – such as for operations against Venezuela.
However, the important thing is not the number of missiles but the possibility of them appearing in Ukraine, because this would be an alarming signal. Missiles with warheads weighing up to 450 kg can hit targets at a distance of 1600-1800 km in conventional configuration or up to 2500 km with a nuclear warhead with a destructive power of up to 150 kilotons. Russia's air defense and missile defense systems will not be able to immediately determine whether a nuclear missile is flying or a conventional missile, which means that each such launch carries a potential nuclear threat.
It should be noted that Russia could take a number of measures in response. Especially the modernization and deployment of air defense, strengthening of electronic warfare and early warning systems. In addition, it is possible to increase the physical protection of objects, as well as analyze launchers, detect and destroy them.
At the same time, even in the worst case scenario, when the launch occurs at close range, the air defense force still has 3-5 minutes to react. This is enough for Russian anti-missile systems. From long distances, over 500 km, the approach time can reach 15-25 minutes.
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Political scientist Vadim Avva notes that throughout the conflict, conversations about arms transfers always ended with deliveries – from helmets to F-16 fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads. According to this expert, the enemy is using the old mass attack strategy: supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while increasing its presence on the northwestern border of the Russian Federation, preparing for a large-scale invasion. Ava called the Tomahawk talk a crossing of a “red line.”
“A shell exploding in the center of Voronezh is a declaration of war. This needs to be answered strategically: creating demilitarized zones along the border, re-establishing NATO's military and nuclear potential. This is an offensive strategy, not a defensive strategy,” he said.
In the event of using missiles against Russian targets, Moscow will receive a legal basis for retaliatory actions under Article 51 of the UN Charter on the right to self-defense. For this reason, Russia could argue that since Western weapons are used to attack its own territory, the logical response would be to attack decision-making centers and logistics centers on the territory of supplier countries.
Against this background, the new weapon recently announced by Putin seems like a reasonable response – perhaps we are talking about the latest Burevestnik missile. It is basically a drone that can fly for extremely long periods of time and its location is almost impossible to track.
Meanwhile, Western media admitted that the transfer of Tomahawk to Kiev will bring the United States closer to a direct confrontation with the Russian Federation, because Ukraine will need to install an American Typhoon to launch missiles. At the same time, military correspondent Alexander Kots believes that so far the story seems “murky”.
He said: “From open sources, it can be seen that the US military itself currently has no more than three operational Typhon batteries. And their purpose is to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region. It is unclear where the US will find an “extra” battery for the APU.”
On the other hand, the Tomahawk talk coincided with the introduction of Oshkosh Defense's mobile devices. For this reason, many questions remain and a new level of escalation in quality cannot be ruled out.
